Random Thought: The Number 18, an exercise in Small Sample Sizes

The tip of the iceberg?

I noticed something interesting the other day while sorting through scans for this site: I have a lot of cards numbered 18/25.  I rarely notice any particular number, even the ones that idiot sellers on eBay proclaim to be “Like a 1/1!!!” (jersey numbers, first/last numbered, etc.).  Once I got that in my head, I started noticing more of them on a regular basis.  While interesting anecdotally, I wondered how significant the population of 18/25s would turn out to be when studied more closely.  And so today’s random diversion was born.


I knew I had plenty of 18/25s, but how would this compare to the total population of cards numbered to 25?  This was fairly simple to figure out, mainly because I have detailed records of every autograph, memorabilia, or otherwise notable card in my collection.  A search of the ~2500 cards I have inventoried returned 175 cards numbered to 25.  That works out to an expected 7 cards for each of the 25 possible values.  As would be expected for any Small Sample Size (SSS), you can throw the expectations out the window.

Not the distribution you would expect, but that's what you get with a SSS

All 25 possible values turned up at least once, with number 17 coming in last at just one card (sorry, Keith) and number 18 matching the anecdotal evidence with the most at 15 cards.  19 of the 25 possible values turned up 8 times or fewer, while the remaining six values accounted for 75 of the 175 total cards.  Behind number 18 were 5, 24, 6, 19, and 2 with 14, 13, 12, 11, and 10 cards, respectively.

What’s so special about number 18?  Well, there’s the obvious of course: Darryl Strawberry wore number 18 in his years with the Mets.  In the Mets’ first 50 years, the number 18 went unused only three times, but Strawberry was the only notable wearer and the last real starter to wear the number (the infamous Ryota Igarashi was the last to be seen in number 18).  It’s up for grabs in 2012, so maybe this is a sign that good things are in store for the Mets this year.  Yeah, I know, probably not.

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