Wait, someone wants to know what I think?
One of the perks of having a baseball blog is getting bloggers from other teams asking for your thoughts on your team. Trust me, it’s a lot more exciting than it sounds. While this blog isn’t getting much of any attention, I (along with probably every Mets blogger out there) did get a request from Daniel Shoptaw at C70 At The Bat for some thoughts on the Mets going into the 2013 season. I am in no way qualified to provide expert analysis on the subject, but I have never let that stop me before, so why start now?
You can read the answers from six other Mets bloggers at Playing Pepper 2013: New York Mets.
1. How would you grade the offseason?
Based on expectations and the meager offerings on the market, a B- sounds fair, if a bit on the high side. It’s tempting to grade them lower for not making any flashy moves, but it’s not like the flashy moves they’ve made in the past have worked out all that well. They kept Wright, grabbed one of the top catching prospects in baseball, and picked up plenty of cheap options for the outfield and the bullpen. Losing R.A. Dickey is tough, but the package the Blue Jays were offering was too good to pass up. Not only did the Mets hang on to all of their hot young pitchers, but they picked up another one to add to the crowded single A ranks. Most importantly, they didn’t throw big contracts at bit parts, going with plenty of non-roster invites (NRIs) over multi-year deals. It’s not ideal, but it leaves the team in a good position to add pieces when better options become available. It’s worth noting that this is the first offseason in which Sandy Alderson has not signed a reliever to a multi-year deal. This is a huge improvement considering that the last two were D.J. Carrasco and Frank Francisco. Travis d’Arnaud looks to be the catcher of the future while John Buck provides a legitimate veteran presence behind the plate. The outfield still looks terrible, but did you see the amount of money that was getting thrown around for even moderately decent outfielders? Now is not the time to be signing the next Jason Bay, the last one is still on the books.
What really matters though is how these guys look in cards. Shaun Marcum has some nice Brewers jersey swatches, John Buck is a big win in terms of game-used memorabilia with pieces of jerseys from the Royals, the Astros, the 2002 Futures Game, and the 2010 All-Star Game on top of bat, glove, chest protector, and shin guard swatches, and d’Arnaud is a bit disappointing with only some red jersey swatches so far, but most of the NRIs aren’t any better.
The exception is Marlon Byrd, who has an astounding amount of game-used memorabilia to his name from his time with the Cubs and the Phillies. I really hope he makes the team just so I justify having what I’ve already bought on speculation.
2. Will Johan Santana be back to his old form this season?
It doesn’t really matter. The Mets aren’t expected to contend this year and this is the last year of his contract, plus he already gave us a no-hitter last year. It’s been a good but not great run from Santana thus far, so it would be nice to see him finish strong. Best case scenario, he comes back in top form and gets dealt in July for an outfield prospect, with the Mets eating most of his remaining salary and Zack Wheeler taking his spot in the rotation. Worst case scenario, he has a setback early in the season and Jenrry Mejia/Collin McHugh/Jeremy Hefner fills in for him until Wheeler is ready. Most likely, he’ll be good for 100 or so innings as long as he stays away from Reed Johnson.
3. What did it mean to you that the team signed David Wright to an extension?
More than it should. This team has a terrible history when it comes to keeping star talent. Even the Astros have had decent luck holding on to their stars for the duration. You have to remember that the Mets lost The Franchise not once but twice and just last year let Jose Reyes (briefly) go to the Marlins without so much as making him an offer. The only Mets star to spend an entire career with the team is Ed Kranepool; Wright is second on the list by games played, with current Mets Daniel Murphy and Ike Davis also in the top ten. I love Kranepool, but that is just sad. With almost no payroll committed past this season, there was simply no excuse for not locking Wright up for the rest of his quality years.
4. What rookie will make the biggest impact in 2013?
There are really only two options here, Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud. d’Arnaud has the potential to be a star at a position that has been a problem area for the Mets since Mike Piazza’s departure, while Wheeler has the potential to be the ace in a rotation with some very underrated young pitchers. The need is greater for d’Arnaud, but I see Wheeler having more impact on a team that is likely to be in pretty bad shape late in the season.
5. What will be the final record of the team and where will they finish in the division?
76-86, 4th in the NL East ahead of the Marlins. 3rd would be nice, but the Phillies don’t have enough experience with late-season collapses to out-collapse the Mets. Last year they got it completely backwards, almost finishing with a winning record. They’ve made some great moves this offseason to improve their ability to disappoint, but they’re still at least two or three years away from contending for last place.
Seriously though, the real test for this team isn’t going to be about their record or where they place in the division, it will be whether they can keep from dropping off like a rock after the All-Star game. They were still in contention last year at the break, then they forgot how to win games and were a lost cause by the trade deadline. This has been the trend for several years now and needs to stop before the Mets can ever be considered a contender, regardless of how many Wild Card teams are added.
6. What one thing from your team are you most looking forward to watching?
In abstract terms, the unexpected. Last season brought us a no-hitter from Johan Santana and a 20-win season and Cy Young award from R.A. Dickey, not to mention the debut of Matt Harvey and David Wright getting back to being David Wright. Even with so much going wrong, there were plenty of bright spots. If you were at Citi Field for the final home game of the season when R.A. Dickey struck out 13 on the way to his 20th win, you wouldn’t have thought that this was a team wrapping up another lost season.
In more specific terms, I’m really looking forward to seeing a (hopefully) full healthy season from Ike Davis. Looking at his final line from last year (.227/.308/.462, 32 HR), you don’t get a full appreciation for just how terrible he was from the start of the season until I posted this in June (.167/.248/.285, 5 HR in 206 PA). His performance from that point on (.261/.341/.562, 27 HR in 378 PA) was enough to bring him up to mediocre on the year, but a full season at that level would be a real treat. A hot start to the 2013 season could give David Wright some company at the All-Star Game at Citi Field this year.
And then there are the unanswered questions. Can Jordany Valdespin make it as a big leaguer? Is there a position for Wilmer Flores? Will Jeurys Familia live up to his high expectations? And will we ever settle on a pronunciation of “Jeurys?” Who will settle into the closer role? How quickly will the hot arms at single A make it up through the system? Will playing in Las Vegas (AAA) cause any problems? Will a major league outfield appear in Citi Field by the end of the season? There’s a lot to look forward to, even if this season turns out like the last few. It’s baseball, isn’t that enough?
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