Tag Archives: Zach Lutz

Hobby Inertia

Posted by on 15 September 2014 Comments Off on Hobby Inertia

Why some key Rookie Cards lag behind the rest

This is the tale of two pitchers. Both made their major league debuts at Citi Field against the Yankees on consecutive days this past May. Both pitched well but were denied wins because of the failings of the rest of their team. One would be sent back to the minors after four starts, only returning for a brief stint with two starts and a relief appearance before roster expansion. The other would spend the remainder of the season in the majors and would be a leading candidate for NL Rookie of the Year. One would have Rookie Cards in two products by the end of August while the other had his first professional cards released just two weeks before his debut and, four months after his debut, is still waiting for his first Rookie Card. The one with two Rookie Cards despite only brief MLB appearances is Rafael Montero. The Rookie of the Year contender with no Rookie Cards is Jacob deGrom.

On the surface, this looks like just the luck of the draw. Some players get the royal Rookie Card treatment, others get overlooked. Most of the time, the difference is due to when a player debuts during the year. August and September debuts usually correspond to lots of Rookie Cards the next year, while late June and July debuts result in just a few Rookie Cards later in the year. The reason for this is lead time – the time it takes to incorporate a new player into a sports card product. Historical evidence suggests a minimum two month lead time for modern baseball card products. That mostly explains what happens with mid and late season debuts, but what about early season debuts? That’s where things get more interesting and the Montero/deGrom dichotomy takes shape.

One of my goals with this blog is to explore the connection between the players on the field and their cardboard incarnations. When it comes to when, if, and how often players receive Rookie Cards, a key factor is prospect inertia. A player with several baseball cards as a prospect is more likely to have Rookie Cards earlier and more often than a player with one or no prospect cards. It would be logical to assume that the same factors that determine whether a player will have cards as a prospect would affect their Rookie Cards. For that to be the case though, changes in prospect status would need to be reflected in a player’s cards. As we’ll see over the last four years, this is not necessarily the case.

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2012 Mets Debut Autographs

Posted by on 25 September 2012 Comments Off on 2012 Mets Debut Autographs

Familia and familiar faces

The September call-up tradition usually means a big influx of minor leaguers for the season’s final weeks, with teams getting up to 15 additional players to use as they see fit. For the Mets, this meant calling back most of the players who had been up with the club at some point this season plus two new faces. Jeurys Familia made his much-anticipated debut in relief, a role that most of the experts see him in long-term. Fred Lewis, who spent time with the Giants and the Reds before having a quietly solid season in Buffalo, made his Mets debut in the following inning as a pinch hitter. Everyone else shown here was back up with the big league club at the end of the season except Kirk Nieuwenhuis (AAA DL), Vinny Rottino (claimed off waivers), Rob Johnson (DL), Jack Egbert (AAA DL), Omar Quintanilla (given away to the Orioles), and Garrett Olson (finished the season in Buffalo). And this is the way the season ends.

Andres Torres Ronny Cedeno Ramon Ramirez Jon Rauch
5 April 2012 5 April 2012 5 April 2012 5 April 2012
Frank Francisco Kirk Nieuwenhuis Jordany Valdespin Jeremy Hefner
5 April 2012 7 April 2012 23 April 2012 23 April 2012
Zach Lutz Vinny Rottino Rob Johnson Robert Carson
24 April 2012 4 May 2012 9 May 2012 18 May 2012
Jack Egbert Omar Quintanilla Elvin Ramirez Justin Hampson
28 May 2012 29 May 2012 3 June 2012 25 June 2012
Josh Edgin Matt Harvey Garrett Olson Kelly Shoppach
13 July 2012 26 July 2012 8 August 2012 16 August 2012
Collin McHugh Jeurys Familia Fred Lewis
23 August 2012 4 September 2012 4 September 2012

Previous Entries:

Hello, goodbye

Between offseason acquisitions, injury replacements, and general roster crunch, a lot of players have made their first Mets appearance in 2012 – 16 in the first three months of the season. Of those, most have spent time on the DL, been sent down to the minors, or, in the case of Vinny Rottino, been put on waivers and claimed by the Indians. Jon Rauch has been healthy but became a major scapegoat after getting hit hard in a few games and Kirk Nieuwenhuis earned a call-up when Andres Torres was injured on opening day and has stuck around ever since. Omar Quintanilla is the only other call-up with a chance of sticking long-term, largely because of his lack of options and the Mets’ lack of depth at shortstop. With the Mets still in contention, the looming trade deadline should bring in some new faces by the trade deadline.

It’s Harvey time!

Back in April, you may have been wondering how many starting pitchers the Mets would have to lose to call up Matt Harvey before August. The answer turns out to be three, with Pelfrey and Gee out for the season and Santana on the DL. As the Mets spiral out of contention, it’s time to see who’s ready for next year. That means we get to see Harvey pitch for the big league club in late July. For a team that was expected to finish in super-last place and trade all of its players with a pulse for a can of nuts with a springing snake in it, a decent first-half run and a couple months of Harvey in the rotation isn’t a bad deal. While he may have exceeded all expectations in his first start (5-1/3IP 0ER 3H 2BB 11K, plus 1-2/3 scoreless innings from fellow 2010 draft pick and July call-up Josh Edgin), it will take a while to see if he will live up to the hype.

From Fenway to Flushing

And then there were two. With Johan Santana out for the season, only Jon Niese and R.A. Dickey have lasted this far in starting rotation. I thought Jeff Kent was supposed to be on Survivor, not the Mets starters… Taking Johan’s slot (initially at least) will be Collin McHugh, who has had a great year so far in Binghamton and Buffalo, despite being overshadowed by Zack Wheeler at both stops. McHugh’s last minor league start before his call-up was at Fenway Park for Futures at Fenway, where he pitched 7 scoreless innings in Buffalo’s 2-0 win over the Pawtucket Red Sox. His next destination would turn out to be another big league park as he was tapped to start at Citi Field the following Thursday, where he went another 7 scoreless innings against the Rockies. Kelly Shoppach made a similar trip by way of the Boston Red Sox. Claimed on waivers and traded for PTBNL Pedro Beato, Shoppach was acquired in an attempt to improve offensive production at catcher. The deal also gives the Mets staff a close look at Shoppach, who will be a free agent at the end of the season and was in their sights last offseason. Shoppach homered for his first hit with the Mets and has been a big part of the team’s recent resurgence.

2012 Futures at Fenway Game 2: Bisons 2, Red Sox 0

Posted by on 20 August 2012 Comments Off on 2012 Futures at Fenway Game 2: Bisons 2, Red Sox 0

Collin McHugh returns to Fenway

Box Score

And now, the main event. Last year, the Mets’ AA affiliate played the Red Sox AA affiliate in Futures at Fenway.  This year, the AAA clubs got into the action as the Buffalo Bisons took on the Pawtucket Red Sox in the 100 year old Fenway Park.  Pitching in such an iconic stadium can be intimidating, so it was awfully convenient that last year’s B-Mets starter Collin McHugh had his turn in the rotation come up today.  McHugh came into the game with six scoreless innings pitched at Fenway, not bad for a guy who has yet to pitch in a major league game.

Josh Satin and Brad Emaus are clearly plotting something as Lucas May, C.J. Nitkowski, and Dylan Owen sign autographs

I didn't see anything

The Bisons wasted no time moving in after the Renegades finished off the Spinners, but you probably don’t want to hear about autograph signings, warmup tosses, or Josh Satin getting worked over with a roller.  You want some action, so I give you Lucas Duda:

Duda hit a line drive to center in the top of the 1st for the first hit of the game.  That would be the only hit for Duda, but nobody else fared better; six Bisons would get hits, but just one each.  Of course, Josh Satin doesn’t need hits.

I told you they were up to something

Satin worked a walk, advanced to third on a double, and then scored on a Brad Emaus groundout.  With that quick tour of the Fenway bases, the Bisons were ahead 1-0.

It was Mike Nickeas’s turn to get a hit in the 5th, but a strikeout ended the inning with him stranded at first.

Eek! A home run!

Josh Rodriguez used his hit in the 6th to send a ball into the Green Monster seats, where fans reacted with surprised panic. 2-0 Bisons.

Matt den Dekker was next with a single in the 7th.  He advanced to second on a groundout and was left stranded one out later.

Zach Lutz doubled in the 8th, but like den Dekker, he was stranded at second.  And that concludes tonight’s offense.  What’s that, you didn’t hear anything about the Red Sox offense?  That could have something to do with these guys:

Collin McHugh, Robert Carson, Elvin Ramirez, and Fernando Cabrera combined for nine scoreless innings, with McHugh’s seven extending his Fenway scoreless innings streak to 13.  Robert Carson was pulled with two outs in the 8th after issuing a walk; Elvin Ramirez struck out J. C. Linares to finish off the inning.

"Sit tight Lucas, I got this one."

Fernando Cabrera came in for the 9th and narrowly avoided giving up a leadoff hit when Matt Tuiasosopo snagged a line drive from Andy LaRoche, stopping the Red Sox rally before it started.  A strikeout left Nate Spears as Pawtucket’s only hope.  He only managed a grounder back to Cabrera, (thankfully) nothing like the way this day started.

Bisons win, 2-0.