Tag Archives: Jeremy Hefner

The Essentials: 2014 Mets Autographs

Posted by on 2 February 2015 1 comment

The Prospect Boom Goes Bust

With all of the cards released across dozens of products in 2014, it can be hard to figure out what is worth collecting and what might as well be forgotten. What makes something essential? It’s a mix of collectibility, notability, and attainability. Popular brands/inserts and player debuts will dominate here, not big money low-numbered parallels or big stars. Just about everything mentioned here should still be fairly easy to find on the secondary market at reasonable prices.

2014 continued the Mets prospect autograph explosion that started in late 2013, but that fizzled out late in the year. While that meant lots of autographs for many top Mets prospects who had previously been overlooked, it was bad news for the Mets’ 2014 draft class, which is still waiting for its first autograph card from Topps.

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Hobby Inertia

Posted by on 15 September 2014 Comments Off on Hobby Inertia

Why some key Rookie Cards lag behind the rest

This is the tale of two pitchers. Both made their major league debuts at Citi Field against the Yankees on consecutive days this past May. Both pitched well but were denied wins because of the failings of the rest of their team. One would be sent back to the minors after four starts, only returning for a brief stint with two starts and a relief appearance before roster expansion. The other would spend the remainder of the season in the majors and would be a leading candidate for NL Rookie of the Year. One would have Rookie Cards in two products by the end of August while the other had his first professional cards released just two weeks before his debut and, four months after his debut, is still waiting for his first Rookie Card. The one with two Rookie Cards despite only brief MLB appearances is Rafael Montero. The Rookie of the Year contender with no Rookie Cards is Jacob deGrom.

On the surface, this looks like just the luck of the draw. Some players get the royal Rookie Card treatment, others get overlooked. Most of the time, the difference is due to when a player debuts during the year. August and September debuts usually correspond to lots of Rookie Cards the next year, while late June and July debuts result in just a few Rookie Cards later in the year. The reason for this is lead time – the time it takes to incorporate a new player into a sports card product. Historical evidence suggests a minimum two month lead time for modern baseball card products. That mostly explains what happens with mid and late season debuts, but what about early season debuts? That’s where things get more interesting and the Montero/deGrom dichotomy takes shape.

One of my goals with this blog is to explore the connection between the players on the field and their cardboard incarnations. When it comes to when, if, and how often players receive Rookie Cards, a key factor is prospect inertia. A player with several baseball cards as a prospect is more likely to have Rookie Cards earlier and more often than a player with one or no prospect cards. It would be logical to assume that the same factors that determine whether a player will have cards as a prospect would affect their Rookie Cards. For that to be the case though, changes in prospect status would need to be reflected in a player’s cards. As we’ll see over the last four years, this is not necessarily the case.

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Product Spotlight: 2014 Topps Gypsy Queen

Posted by on 12 May 2014 Comments Off on Product Spotlight: 2014 Topps Gypsy Queen

Some good, some bad, and some ugly photographs

Gypsy Queen just isn’t my kind of product.  I’ve never been a fan of tobacco style products, though I can understand the appeal considering the popularity of that era among hardcore collectors.  At least you can get proper toploaders and binder pages for the tobacco size minis, unlike most of the other minis that are plaguing the industry.  And yet, even though I have no interest in building a set of these, I always find myself with at least the Mets autographs and relics plus a base team set.  There’s just something about the distinct simplicity that makes Gypsy Queen stand out.

Card Design

The formula for a Queen Design is pretty simple.  Take some earth tones, add some fancy frame squiggles, and slap a big Gypsy Queen logo on it.  This year’s version is similar to the 2012 design, which is a bit of an improvement over last year’s overly busy look.  I’m not a fan of the heavy use of filters to give the photographs a vintage painting look.  It’s not as bad as whatever went wrong with this year’s Turkey Red, but it looks less “vintage artwork” than “Hey look at this cool Photoshop filter I found!” to me.

Mets Selection

Overall, 8 cards is a bit below average for a 350-card set, but the split between base and short prints is even more off.  Only five Mets made the 300-card base set: Rookies Wilmer Flores and Travis d’Arnaud, Daniel Murphy, and newcomers Curtis Granderson and Bartolo Colon.  Three Mets are among the 50 short prints: Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and David Wright.  While it is strange to see all of the stars missing from the base set and loaded into the short prints, it’s another absence that is most notable – retired players.  Gypsy Queen is loaded with retired stars, more than 50 in total, but none of them are Mets.  This is the first year without Tom Seaver in the base set, though you could just make your own by cutting out a 2014 Gypsy Queen frame and slapping the Seaver picture they use every year into it.  If you were hoping for a full set of identical-photo Seaver Gypsy Queen cards, that’s the only way you’ll get it.

Parallels

100 of the 300 full-sized base cards have blue (numbered to 499) and white (retail exclusive) framed parallels.  Flores, d’Arnaud, and Granderson made the list here.  These are always some of the nicest cards in Gypsy Queen and they’re common enough to be easy to obtain.  On the mini side, all 350 mini cards have a full range of parallels including black (numbered to 199), red (numbered to 99), and sepia (numbered to 50).  Despite the low numbering, many of these carry little or no premium.

Inserts

Two inserts is actually pretty good for Gypsy Queen.  Seaver shows up here, though I’m not liking the sepia treatment of the overly filtered photos.  These would probably look more vintage without the filtering.  At least it’s not the usual Gypsy Queen Seaver photo.

Variants

Matt Harvey and David Wright have all of the photo variants this time around.  The full-sized cards get reverse negative variants (with different photos from the base cards to begin with…) and the minis get the usual photo variants that end up being far more common than the regular versions.

Relics

2014 continues the decline of Mets base relics in Gypsy Queen.  After having four in 2012 and three in 2013, we’re left with just two this year, one full-size and one mini.  And neither features a photograph that comes close to matching the material.  Wheeler’s shows him in home pinstripes, but the material is from last year’s orange Los Mets jersey.  Gee’s material is from his home white jersey, but the photo shows him in, um, black?  Gee hasn’t worn a black jersey in a game since 2011, making the photo more than two years old.  Apparently getting material from last year is easier than getting photos from the last two years…  The Gee also has patch variants numbered to 10 and 5.  Matt Harvey is the lone Met in the jumbo patch relics (numbered to 50 or less), though most of these do not feature patches as the name implies.

Autographs

On the other hand, this year’s Gypsy Queen doubles the total number of Mets Gypsy Queen autographs that have been made.  The first three years of Gypsy Queen gave us autographs from Angel Pagan, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Jeurys Familia, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis.  2014 Gypsy Queen features the first certified autograph card from Jeremy Hefner, RC autographs from Travis d’Arnaud and Wilmer Flores, and autographs from David Wright and Zack Wheeler.  Interestingly, the RC logo is on the d’Arnaud and Flores autographs after being absent on rookie autographs in previous years, proving that nobody has any clue what a Rookie Card is these days.  Parallels include red (numbered to 49), gold (numbered to 25), green (numbered to 10), and purple (numbered to 1).  Wright and Wheeler also have mini autographs (numbered to 10) and autographed relics (numbered to 25).

Verdict

Mixed bag.  On the one hand, the autograph checklist would be good for just about any product and there are a reasonable number of easily obtainable parallels and variants to chase.  On the other, the lack of retired players in the base checklist (even just another Seaver with the infinitely-recycled photo) and relics that are little more than filler (the orange Wheeler jersey has gotten a lot of use so far this year…) leave considerable room for improvement.  ‘Unbalanced’ might be the best word to use to describe this year’s Gypsy Queen from a Mets perspective.

2014 Mets Card Spring Preview

Posted by on 9 March 2014 Comments Off on 2014 Mets Card Spring Preview

What’s in the cardboard for the 2014 Mets

Another offseason is coming to an end, so it’s time to take a look at what it all means for card collecting. 2014 was supposed to be the year Sandy Alderson’s plan came together, but significant gaps and questions put that in jeopardy even before Matt Harvey was lost for the season. In terms of cards, the lack of notable veterans has left most sets a mix of David Wright and various prospects and young stars. Are there enough new veterans and rising stars to give the Mets respectable representation in this year’s products? Or, like the master plan, will it take another year for everything to fall into place?

Farewells

Alderson’s big trade of 2013 sent Marlon Byrd and John Buck to Pittsburgh for infielder Dilson Herrera and MLB-ready reliever Vic Black. Byrd and Buck went on to the postseason and, as expected, didn’t return to the Mets. Buck was no longer necessary with the arrival of Travis d’Arnaud, but Byrd was the Mets’ top outfielder offensively.

As I predicted, the 2013 Topps Series 2 Mets team set is a “Where are they now?” article waiting to happen…

The non-tender deadline gave us another batch of departures. Jordany Valdespin, Omar Quintanilla, and Scott Atchison were cut as expected, with Justin Turner and the injured Jeremy Hefner joining them unexpectedly. Hefner and Quintanilla were re-signed, Jordany Valdespin gave in to destiny and signed with the Marlins, Scott Atchison signed with the Indians, and Justin Turner joined teammate Mike Baxter with the Dodgers.

On top of that, oft-injured pitchers Johan Santana and Shaun Marcum also landed elsewhere, Santana with the Orioles and Marcum with the Indians. Santana missed all of 2013 after his second shoulder surgery and Marcum saw his season end early after a shoulder surgery of his own.

Hails

As mentioned before, the Mets bolstered the ranks of their top 20 prospects with the acquisition of Dilson Herrera and Vic Black from the Pirates in August. Black should get a good amount of work as a late-inning reliever this year while Herrera is still a few years out. Not a bad return for a few weeks of a couple of players who wouldn’t be back this year anyway.

And here are the big offseason acquisitions. If nothing else, these guys bring a veteran presence in cardboard dating back to the late ’90s. More on that later.

Autographs

The last few months have given us plenty of new autographs. Bowman Sterling closed out 2013 with the first autographs from L.J. Mazzilli. Panini Elite Extra Edition started 2014 with the first autographs from Jared King and Akeel Morris, plus the first live autographs from Rainy Lara. Last month’s 2014 Donruss was largely a bust but did give us Andrew Brown’s first autographs. Notably absent is Juan Lagares, who should be in line for a lot of attention after his performance in 2013.

Autographs are also plentiful further up in the system. Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero should get called up sometime in 2014 and will hopefully get some more autographs along the way. Travis d’Arnaud and Wilmer Flores are the first of the top Mets prospects with autographs in 2014 products.

Notable autographs in upcoming products include the first from Dallas Green and Frank Lary in 2014 Topps Heritage (though not as Mets) and the first from Jeremy Hefner in 2014 Topps Gypsy Queen. More will hopefully follow in 2014 Bowman and 2014 Topps Archives, though the lack of Mets autographs in Heritage is troubling.

Game-Used

One of the big surpises so far this year was the pair of Rookie pinstripe jersey cards in 2013 Panini America’s Pastime. These (along with camo patch variants) are the first memorabilia cards from Juan Lagares and Scott Rice and mark the first time that multiple current Mets have had Mets pinstripe jersey cards in the same year since 2009. Travis d’Arnaud was the first 2014 Rookie with his first MLB-worn material in 2014 Topps Series 1 and 2014 Topps Tribute. It’s a good start after some pretty rough years, but there’s still more ground to cover.

2014 Donruss has given us the first oddity of the year in the form of pinstripe jersey cards from Ike Davis, Dillon Gee, and Jon Niese. Their Game Gear cards all contain a type of pinstripe only seen at the MLB level back in the ’90s. This would mean that they could only be from the 1993 throwback home jersey worn on the road in Colorado on April 16, 2013.

Autographed Game-Used

Leaf had a couple surprises of its own in 2013 Leaf Trinity. In addition to autographs from Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, Dominic Smith, and Domingo Tapia, Leaf released autographed cards with memorabilia from Smith and Tapia. These all included piping or patches, a rarity for minor league players.

At the big league level, Travis d’Arnaud had his first autographed patch cards in the Strata insert set in 2014 Topps Series 1. Numbered to just 25 (and released as redemptions), these are not easy to get a hold of. Hopefully we’ll see more from him later in the year.

Playing Pepper 2014: New York Mets

Like last year, Daniel Shoptaw from C70 At the Bat polled the Mets blog community to get a picture of where the team stands as of spring training. Also like last year, I offered up my unique insight that may or may not be particularly insightful.

You can read all of the responses here: Playing Pepper 2014: New York Mets.

1) How would you grade the offseason?

It’s hard to go much higher than a B considering that the team still has some big holes and big questions, but the moves the team made should be at least enough for a B, so… It’s another year in a holding pattern, so a B it is. The outfield needed an overhaul, which it got in the form of Curtis Granderson and, to a lesser extent, the other Chris Young. The rotation needed a veteran and some Mejia insurance, which Bartolo Colon, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and John Lannan should provide. The bullpen has a few cheap new options, which is probably the best that could be expected. First base is still unresolved and shortstop… No shortstop solution equals a B.

In a different light though, this offseason earned an A for filling some of the Mets’ most glaring holes: All-Star memorabilia. Since All-Star workout jerseys started getting sold into tiny cardboard prisons in 2000, the Mets have had a representative from each AL All-Star team no later than the following spring each year. Sometimes it was a former player stepping up with a new team (Jason Isringhausen ’00, Melvin Mora ’05, Ty Wigginton ’10), other times it was a big-name offseason acquisition (Johan Santana ’07, Francisco Rodriguez ’08, Jason Bay ’09). This ended with the start of the Alderson regime. With no big free agent signings and an emphasis on building the farm system, there were no former or future Mets to be found on the AL All-Star Roster. It looked like 2013 would turn things around with both Jose Reyes and R.A. Dickey in Toronto, but that didn’t quite work out.

That all changed with this past offseason. In the span of a few days, Sandy Alderson checked off the 2011 (Curtis Granderson), 2012 (also CG), and 2013 (Bartolo Colon) AL All-Star teams and threw in the first Met from the 2005 Futures Game USA team (Chris Young) for good measure. Later, the signing of Jose Valverde to a minor league deal added a possible second 2011 AL All-Star. A bounceback season from Reyes and/or Dickey could put us back on track to have a Met on every AL All-Star team.

2) Can Zack Wheeler step up and fill the gap left by Matt Harvey’s surgery?

Yeah, about that… Over the years (well, two of them at least), I have identified two predictors of doom that can be found in cardboard. From 2010 to 2013, only one player each year appeared with the Mets and had a Mets pinstripe jersey card released in the same year. None of the first three played a game with the Mets in the following year. The fourth is Zack Wheeler. In 2013, I noticed that a lot of Mets pitchers who signed a lot of autographs that year suffered from arm injuries. Zack Wheeler was one of the few who has, so far, remained injury free. Does this mean Zack Wheeler is now cursed and has no chance of throwing a pitch in 2014? Of course not. But with the run of injuries Mets pitchers suffered in 2013, nothing is certain.

Seriously though, you can’t really look at it is having a gap to be filled. With or without Harvey, the rotation needs five pitchers to start with and some depth to fill in as needed. The Colon signing added a much-needed veteran and 200 innings from Wheeler would certainly help, as would strong seasons from Jon Niese and Dillon Gee. That just leaves the #5 spot, which has some decent (and cheap) options that could also provide depth later in the season. Add in possible appearances by Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, and/or Jacob deGrom in the second half and the Mets might just have a legitimate group of starting pitchers to work with while Harvey rehabs.

3) Which roster battle will be the most intriguing during spring training?

I’m not really intrigued by it, but the one everyone seems to be interested in is who will be batting leadoff. “Leadoff Hitter” isn’t really a position, but you wouldn’t know that from the reporting these days. Eric Young Jr., the reigning NL stolen base champ, is the favorite for the job, but he’s a 4th outfielder at best. Do the Mets demote Juan Lagares to give EY a starting job to put him (and his mediocre OBP) at the top of the order? Or do they keep EY as a potent weapon off the bench and pick a leadoff hitter from the remaining options? This is the classic case of logic (EY’s value is highest as a bench player) vs. emotion (stolen bases!).

4) What rookie, if any, will make the most impact on the team in 2014?

That would be Travis d’Arnaud. Wilmer Flores will probably start the season in AAA and there’s little chance of seeing any of the big pitching prospects until late June or July. That puts d’Arnaud in the rare position of spending a full season with Rookie eligibility. He has already shown that he is ready behind the plate, but he didn’t impress much with the bat in his brief stint in the majors last year. If his bat comes around (and if he can put injury questions to rest), he could provide significant value at a position that hasn’t produced much for the Mets in recent years.

5) What will be the final record of the team and where will they finish in the division?

I’ll go out on a limb and go with 80-82, 3rd place in the NL East.  As with last year, this will depend more on how the other teams in the division perform than how the Mets perform.  Will the Phillies continue to falter?  Is the Marlins’ emergence still another year away?  Did the Braves and Nationals make the right moves to stay at the top of the NL East?  If everything breaks right, the Mets could stay relevant past the All-Star break.  If not, well, pick any recent year to see the result.  I’m not quite sold on 90 wins, but 80 is still in play.  Of course, so is 70.

6) Which player from your team do you most enjoy watching?

Sigh. Will Matt Harvey’s rehab be televised?

The Danger of Pitchers Signing Autographs

Posted by on 21 October 2013 Comments Off on The Danger of Pitchers Signing Autographs

Ink and arms don’t mix

Here at Collect the Mets, we guarantee you one card-related crackpot conspiracy theory every year.  It’s part of the differentiated value we offer in our efforts to deliver content that you won’t find anywhere else (often with good reason).  Last year, we broke the story about the Curse of the Pinstripes, which has yet to claim any victims in 2013.  So far, no current-year Mets players have had Mets pinstripe jersey cards released in 2013 (Update: Zack Wheeler was the lone current-year Met with pinstripe jersey cards released in 2013), though at least Matt Harvey and Jeremy Hefner are known to be out for 2014.  If either of them has a Mets pinstripe jersey card in one of the final products of the year, that provides retroactive validation of the curse.  If not, well, then we don’t get any nice pinstripe jersey cards, which is frustrating for collectors.

This year, the Mets suffered injury after injury from even before Day 1.  Johan Santana was the big question mark for 2013, but it turns out that he was little more than an underscore.  After an injury in spring training, Santana went back under the knife and was lost for 2013.  That’s how it went for Mets pitchers for the rest of the year, right up to Matt Harvey’s postseason announcement that he would be undergoing Tommy John surgery and would miss 2014.  With bookends like that, much will be written about the Mets’ injury woes in 2013, but most blogs will leave out one crucial element: the fact that so many pitchers signed large quantities of autograph cards right before their injuries.  Can this be a coincidence?  In a word: absolutely.  Everyone is looking for a pattern in pitcher injuries (see our own Good Pitcher Effect), but their commonality masks any clear causality.  Which makes it just as likely as anything else that signing autographs leads to pitcher breakdowns.

Injured With Autographs

Jeurys Familia (Topps Series 1, Topps Gypsy Queen, Bowman, Bowman Inception, Panini Pinnacle, Topps Tier One, Topps Chrome, Topps Finest)

Jeurys Familia was once considered one of the Mets’ top pitching prospects alongside Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler.  By the time he made his MLB debut in 2012, he was projecting more as a late-inning reliever or closer than a starter.  He entered 2013 as one of only two Mets eligible for Rookie Cards but was no sure bet to make the team out of spring training.  While he did just barely make the Opening Day roster, he made only eight appearances before going on the 60-day DL on May 9 in need of elbow surgery.  After three months of rehab, Familia returned to Queens for his final appearance of 2013, giving up one run on two hits and two walks while striking out one to open the 9th in an 8-5 Mets loss.

Familia was the go-to guy for Mets autographs in 2013.  His Rookie Card eligibility made him a safe bet to appear in most of the products released in 2013 and an attractive option for autographed inserts.  With autographs in Topps Series 1, Topps Gypsy Queen, and Bowman, he must have been signing well before the start of the season.  The timing lines up, but were the autographs a factor in his injury?  Let’s just say yes for the sake of the narrative.  His continued presence in just about everything else this year means that he must have been signing autographs during rehab.  Could that sabotage his recovery?

Luis Mateo (Bowman Platinum, Bowman Chrome)

As part of the 2012 Brooklyn Cyclones all-star rotation, Luis Mateo saw his prospect status rise considerably.  While not as polished as teammate Gabriel Ynoa, Mateo was the highest-regarded pitcher from that Brooklyn rotation and made the jump to St. Lucie for the 2013 Season.  After one start for St. Lucie, he was called up to AA Binghamton to make a spot start, which is where everything went wrong.  He suffered an elbow injury during the game, spent more than a month rehabbing in an attempt to avoid more severe injury, and then had Tommy John surgery in June after a pair of relief appearances for St. Lucie.

And then he had his first autograph cards released in July in Bowman Platinum.  As with Familia’s first autos, these were almost certainly signed before the start of the season.  Mateo would also have autographs released in September in Bowman Chrome, but it is not known when he signed these (Rafael Montero and Matt Reynolds signed theirs in the summer).  That’s two big autograph signers and two busted elbows.  But wait, there’s more.

Shaun Marcum (Topps Series 2, Topps Tier One)

There were many people who doubted that Shaun Marcum would ever throw a pitch for the Mets.  With a reputation for being injury-prone, Marcum’s signing came at significant risk.  So it came as no surprise that his season ended in July with shoulder surgery.

And then he had 670 autograph cards released in Topps Tier One the next month.  He was also supposed to have autographs in Topps Series 2 in June, but those were issued as redemptions.  Did his spring training injury delay his signing until May or June?  If so, the timing lines up with his injury.  That’s two elbows and a shoulder now, though we have no causative link.  But when has that ever stopped anyone?

Corey Oswalt (Topps Heritage Minor League Edition)

Knee injury, only signed for one product late in the season – let’s just mark this one “Not Applicable” and move on.

Matt Harvey (2011 Bowman Platinum signed in July 2013)

And the big one.  Matt Harvey was one of the few reasons to watch the Mets in 2013, so the news in August that he had a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) was devastating.  Harvey drew out the decision of whether to have Tommy John surgery until October, when he announced that he was opting for surgery.  That takes him out for all of 2014 and makes it questionable as to whether he will be back at full strength in 2015.

Matt Harvey has no autographs in any 2013 products.  He signed about 500 total autograph cards for Panini’s 2012 products, which were released into this spring.  Before that, you have to go back to 2010 to find any Matt Harvey autograph cards.  So why is he here?  It turns out that Harvey signed his 2011 Bowman Platinum autographs on July 25, almost two years to the day after that product was released.  And about a month before his injury was announced.  Based on a carefully-selected small sample of cases, we can conclude that autographs kill elbows and maybe shoulders.  What happens if we widen our sample a bit and take a look at a few more 2013 Mets pitchers?

Injured Without Autographs

Johan Santana

Let’s just all agree that the Curse of the Pinstripes has been working overtime here and take Santana out of the running for this one.  In fact, of the three Curse victims, Santana is the only one to ever play for the Mets again afterward, throwing the Mets’ first no-hiter in the process.  Before getting stepped on and having it all come crashing down.  Maybe the Curse is stronger than I thought…  Santana has never been a big autograph signer, so he doesn’t really fit here.

Jonathon Niese

The 2013 (and likely 2014) Opening Day starter, Niese had high expectations this year even with the emergence of Matt Harvey as an ace and the anticipated arrival of Zack Wheeler.  Now in the role of the veteran following the trade of R.A. Dickey and Johan Santana’s re-injury, it was up to him to stabilize a rotation out of control.  So it shouldn’t have been much of a surprise to see him hit the DL in June with a partially torn rotator cuff.  The injury only sidelined him for a month and a half though and Niese closed out the 2013 season at Citi Field.

After having plenty of autograph cards from 2009 to 2012, Niese has been a no-show so far this year except for a few multi-player sticker autograph cards (numbered to 15).  With no recent autographs, we can’t blame any injuries from this year on signing.  Maybe not signing autographs is the culprit here.

Jeremy Hefner

2013 was Hefner’s opportunity to step up and claim a spot in the Mets’ diminished rotation.  After securing the spot start / long reliever role in 2012, Hefner found himself at the back end of the rotation when Santana and Marcum were unavailable to start the season.  After a shaky start in his new role as a regular starter, Hefner dominated over a 6-week stretch starting in the beginning of June, pitching 51 innings over 8 starts with an ERA of 1.76, 40 strikeouts, and just 8 walks over that span.  His next start would be the shortest of the season, lasting only two plus innings with 8 runs and 10 hits given up.  His next four starts weren’t much better, going no longer than 6 innings and giving up no fewer than 3 runs in any of them.  By mid-August, Hefner was on the DL with Tommy John surgery looming in his future.

You sure can’t blame this one on autographs because Hefner doesn’t have any.  He remains one of the most prominent Mets without a certified autograph card, a problem that won’t be helped by elbow surgery.

Update:

Hefner signed his first autographs while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.  And then went back under the knife for a second round…

Bobby Parnell

After Frank Francisco went down with injury, the Mets needed a new closer.  Bobby Parnell stepped up and pitched better than the results indicated, falling victim to blown saves resulting from the actions of the players behind him on more than one occasion.  And then a neck injury sidelined Parnell, with his season ending in surgery.

Parnell hasn’t signed autographs in a few years, plus this is a neck injury and not an arm injury.  There’s no connection here, so this is another one to mark “Not Applicable.”

Update:

Well, that escalated quickly…  Parnell seemed to recover from that neck injury without incident, but something didn’t seem quite right going into the 2014 season.  After an Opening Day blown save, it was revealed that Parnell had a partially torn UCL.  And in case you missed it, he also had autograph cards in 2013 Panini Select, released during the offseason.  Looks like we’ve got another one.

Jenrry Mejia

Once considered one of the Mets’ top pitching prospects (sound familiar?), Mejia made his debut in 2010 when Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel were desperate to keep their jobs.  Mejia became the sacrificial lamb, called up to pitch middle relief in low leverage spots as you would expect competent management to do with one of your top starting pitching prospects.  Or not.  Mejia’s development was further derailed by Tommy John surgery in 2011, making the fact that he even still existed news for Mets fans when he returned to the majors in September 2012.  His 2013 spring training injury on the other hand was nothing unexpected.  Injury #2 had him working his way through the minors on rehab until late July, when he made his 2013 debut with a trio of sevens: 7IP, 7H, and 7K to go with zeroes in the runs and walks columns.  Top prospect Jenrry Mejia was back, and not a minute too soon for a rotation with a rotating cast on the DL.  Which Mejia would rejoin a month later with bone spurs in his elbow for injury #3.

Mejia hasn’t signed autographs since 2010, so there’s no way to connect them to his 2013 injury unless Topps is sitting on an unused stockpile somewhere.  But did those 2010 autographs, combined with his erratic use on the mound that year, contribute to his 2011 injury?

Michael Fulmer

Ranked as one of the top prospects in the Mets system at the start of 2013, Fulmer has endured setback after setback.  A torn meniscus during spring training delayed his start to the season, then just nine starts in he was hit by a batted ball and removed as a precautionary measure.  Following that, he returned to the DL with a shoulder strain.  He is expected to be ready to go for spring training next year.

As the 44th overall pick in 2011, Michael Fulmer made the rounds in the draft pick autograph products that year.  Since then though, we haven’t really seen much from him.  Topps used a few of his sticker autographs in 2013 Bowman Chrome, but those were almost certainly old stock.  Unless he did some signing for an upcoming product over the summer, there’s nothing to see here.  Except for a series of unfortunate injuries.

Cory Mazzoni

Speaking of a series of unfortunate injuries…  Elbow neuritis in April, strained hamstring in July…  It sure seems like a lot more than that.  Mazzoni only appeared in 13 games in 2013, none of which were any of the times I saw the B-Mets.

As for autographs, Mazzoni is another one with lots of 2011 autos and not much since then.  The only 2013 Mazzoni autograph I’ve seen is the one I got from him in person at a game (while he was on the DL of course).  Another unrelated case.

Taylor Whitenton

After an injury in spring training, Whitenton has completely dropped off the map.  Let’s just call this the bottom of the barrel and stop here.

Not Injured With Autographs

A few prominent pitchers made it through the 2013 season without injury and with a few autographs to show for it.  Do they provide evidence disproving our hypothesis or do they have injuries coming in the near future?  Only time will tell.

Zack Wheeler (Bowman Platinum, Topps Chrome, Topps Finest)

Scouts reported that Wheeler was MLB-ready in spring training, but a strained oblique during batting practice caused him to lose key prep time, making a start in the minors inevitable.  From there, it was just a matter of which money-saving deadline the Mets would hold out for.  Wheeler made his MLB debut in June and nearly reached his innings limit when he was shut down for the season in September after complaining of shoulder stiffness.  The injury wasn’t considered to be serious and likely would have only caused him to miss a start if it had taken place earlier in the season.

Wheeler only had about 30 total autograph cards as a Met released before his MLB debut, then had hundreds between Bowman Platinum, Topps Chrome, and Topps Finest.  Was the impact of these signings starting to catch up to him in September?  He’s one to keep an eye on next year.

Update:

Even with the Curse of the Pinstripes piled on after 2013 Topps Triple Threads, Wheeler remained healthy for the 2014 season.  He also signed a few more autographs, but surely not enough to be cause for concern, right?.  He will miss all of the 2015 season following Tommy John surgery.

Rafael Montero (Bowman Chrome, Leaf Metal Draft)

Montero is one of the next top pitching prospects due to debut for the Mets, assuming that he isn’t traded first.  After a year split between AA and AAA, Montero could be ready at any time in 2014.  This past July, Montero signed his first certified autograph cards.  No injury followed.  So there’s that.

Domingo Tapia (Leaf Metal Draft)

Tapia has been one of the Mets’ top pitching prospects in the low minors, though his 2013 wasn’t quite in line with his past performance.  A cooking injury sidelined him for a bit in May, but otherwise he’s been fairly consistent at 100+ innings over each of the last two seasons.  Tapia was a surprise to see with an autograph in 2013 Leaf Metal Draft.

Conclusion

Inconclusive.  There’s really nothing that can be said with any certainty without a more comprehensive analysis.  For our purposes though, we can come to a completely unscientific sensationalistic conclusion based on a carefully-selected set of data points and declare that signing autographs contributes to pitcher injury.  I was joking when I started this, but the timing in some of these cases makes me wonder if there might be something to it after all.  While it certainly isn’t a direct cause, could autograph signing be one of many factors that make pitchers susceptible to arm injuries?  There’s so much we don’t know about pitcher injuries that it could be possible.

2004 Mets Draft Class Autographs

Posted by on 28 May 2013 Comments Off on 2004 Mets Draft Class Autographs

From Humber to Hefner with Who? in between

Full list of 2004 Mets draft picks

With draft day fast approaching and the Mets poised for a top 5 pick in 2014, it seems like a good time to look back at another draft day when the Mets were in rough shape. Coming off the worst Mets season since the years we do not talk about, the 2004 draft must have come with a sense of urgency. Sure, the Mets could use free agency and the Marlins to load up on veterans to get back to a winning record, but it would take solid reinforcements from the minors to keep any newfound success going for more than, say, three or four years. If the Mets could just hold out until late 2007, the 2004 draft class could come to the rescue and prevent disaster.

As luck would have it, Upper Deck went all out on draft pick autographs in 2004, so most of the top dozen picks are represented here. Just look at all these future Mets stars! The Mets signed all of their top 12 picks except for Neil Jamison. Of the 12 though, only three would make it to the majors. One other player drafted by the Mets in 2004 would make it to the majors, but we’ll get to that later.

1 Philip Humber 2 Matthew Durkin 3 Gabriel Hernandez 4 Aaron Hathaway
5 Nick Evans 6 Ryan Coultas 7 Scott Hyde 8 Neil Jamison (DNS)
9 Mike Carp 10 Brahiam Maldonado 12 Jeffrey Landing 46 Jeremy Hefner (DNS)

Philip Humber

Philip Humber’s career trajectory is a strange one. Drafted just one pick behind Justin Verlander, the Mets must have had high hopes. Humber paid off fairly quickly as one of the pieces in the trade that brought Johan Santana to Flushing in 2008. After two uneventful seasons with the Twins, Humber signed with the Royals and worked his way through the Athletics, White Sox, and Astros on waiver claims. A year after pitching a perfect game for the White Sox, he went through waivers with the Astros and was sent down to AAA. Justin Verlander, he is not.

Nick Evans

Who? Evans may be most remembered for being forgotten. As a bit player in 159 games over 4 seasons, he didn’t do much worth remembering, so maybe that’s fitting.

Mike Carp

Carp is currently getting noticed as a part-time player with the Red Sox after being dealt to the Mariners in the ill-fated J.J. Putz megatrade and then getting swapped to the Red Sox this year for, well, not much of anything.

Those three players combine for 3.4 bWAR, 1.2 of it with the Mets. Factor in the trades and, well, Johan Santana had a pretty good 2008, right? If there’s any value to be found in the 2004 draft, we’re going to have to look elsewhere. And Elsewhere is Jeremy Hefner’s middle name (also Anybody, Warm Body, Fill-In, Placeholder, etc.)

Jeremy Hefner

Drafted in the 46th round in 2004, Jeremy Hefner wasn’t exactly a top prospect. And he didn’t sign with the Mets. They tried again in 2005 in the 48th round, but he still wouldn’t sign with the Mets. The Padres finally nabbed him in the 5th round in 2007, but Hefner would never play for the Padres in the majors. The Pirates then claimed him on waivers in 2011, only to turn around and put him back on waivers a few weeks later. And that’s when the Mets finally acquired Jeremy Hefner. It only took seven and a half years. Hefner would spend 2012 as a spot starter / long reliever before locking down a rotation spot in 2013 when everything started going wrong with Mets pitchers. The most significant Mets draftee in 2004 might be one who didn’t sign.

The Rest of the East

The Mets might not have done well in the 2004 draft, but how did the rest of the division fare? The Braves, usually known for drafting well, had a terrible draft, only getting major league performances out of two players, both at below-replacement level (27th round pick Tyler Flowers would turn out to be the best of the bunch but didn’t sign until he was drafted again by the Braves in 2005 and was traded to the White Sox in the Javier Vazquez deal before reaching the majors). Everyone else got just one useful player out of the 2004 draft – Ian Desmond for the Nationals (Expos), J.A. Happ for the Phillies, and Jason Vargas for the Marlins (who was later traded to the Mets, started two games, and joined Mike Carp in the Putz trade). Basically, the White Sox got about as much out of the NL East draft picks as any of the NL East teams did. And those 2007 Mets? The reinforcements never arrived.