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Holding Myself Accountable

Posted by on 1 October 2013 Comments Off on Holding Myself Accountable

A look back at a look ahead at the Mets in 2013

Earlier this year, I answered a few questions about the upcoming 2013 season.  To see if I had any clue about what I was talking about, I pulled out my answers and compared them to the reality of the 2013 season.

Offseason grade: B-

You can’t really judge the process by the results, but the Mets’ problems in 2013 weren’t caused by their offseason deals.  Buck and Byrd performed at least as well as expected and brought back a couple of prospects, so Mission Accomplished there.  Shaun Marcum was Shaun Marcum, Collin Cowgill’s stay was mercifully short, and Travis d’Arnaud didn’t get much of a look due to injury.  As for the big-name outfielders the Mets didn’t get in the offseason, well, Victorino was probably the only one worth his contract and I think I’m the only Mets fan who wanted to see him on the Mets.

Johan Santana won’t matter

As it turns out, Santana landed squarely on the worst case scenario line.  While I didn’t pick that as the likely outcome, I didn’t think Santana would be a factor in 2013 and he certainly wasn’t.

The Mets had to keep David Wright

Take a look at the Game 162 lineup.  Now picture it without Wright.  Yeah, the Mets need him.  We got a look at the Mets without Wright when he was on the DL and it wasn’t pretty.

Zack Wheeler: Impact Rookie

Wheeler did well in his rookie stint, but he didn’t blow everyone away like Harvey did.  Still, he’s a solid starter in a rotation that featured Daisuke Matsuzaka and Aaron Harang at the end.  Travis d’Arnaud will take his rookie eligibility into 2014, so he wasn’t the right pick either.  The real impact rookie this year was Juan Lagares, who was one of the top defensive outfielders in baseball in 2013 while being merely replacement-level at the plate.  He set a Mets rookie record with 16 outfield assists, just three short of the Mets season record.  Lagares was overshadowed last year by Matt den Dekker, but an injury in spring training kept den Dekker in the minors until the end of August.  Lagares is on his way to becoming a star if he can get it together at the plate, but that’s a big if.

An honorable mention has to go to Scott Rice, who made his MLB debut with the Mets on Opening Day and pitched himself to hernia surgery in September.  Along the way, he earned his first Rookie Card, though he has yet to appear in an MLB-licensed product (Lagares on the other hand is still waiting for his first Rookie Card).  Not bad for someone originally drafted in 1999.

Mets finish at 76-86, 4th in the NL East

I was a couple of wins over on the record and one place under in the standings.  Who knew the Phillies could fall so far so fast?  With the Marlins seemingly loaded with prospects, the Phillies could find themselves in the basement as early as next year.

On the plus side, the Mets didn’t contend for half a season and then flush themselves down the toilet.  2013 was a series of ups and downs, though the end result was the same as last year.  Take out the injuries and add some better players and maybe you have a team that can stay strong all season.  But that’s still a bit of a stretch.  They didn’t fail in their usual way, so that’s something.

Ike Davis Strikes Back

Well, three words out of four ain’t bad…  Davis looked terrible at the start of the season, even worse than he did last year.  A month in Vegas helped him a little, but the power never came back.  He finished with just 9 home runs in 103 games, well off his usual pace.  A full season of Ike was not something to look forward to after all.

Elsewhere, there were some fun moments.  Sweeping the Yankees in four games, including a walkoff to end Mariano Rivera’s final appearance at Citi Field, was nice.  Matt Harvey’s starts were always must-see TV, even if the Mets often found a way to lose.  The Harvey/Wheeler doubleheader may have been the most anticipated day of Mets baseball all season.  And of course Harvey’s start at the All-Star game and the Futures Game started by a pair of Mets prospects were memorable, even if they weren’t actual Mets games.

The Jordany Valdespin question has been answered.  Wilmer Flores is still largely an unknown, as is the pronunciation of Familia’s first name.  Bobby Parnell did a great job as closer, though injury ended his season early and gave us LaTroy Hawkins, Vic Black, and Frank Francisco as possible closers.  Gabriel Ynoa is a stud, Luis Mateo not so much, and Hansel Robles regressed.  Las Vegas seems to be working out, but there may only be another year of it left.  And no, the outfield question did not get resolved in 2013.  There was a lot to see this year, even if we already knew how it would end.  The season is a journey and this one is over.

2013 Mets Debut Autographs

Posted by on 23 September 2013 Comments Off on 2013 Mets Debut Autographs

Auditions for 2014 are now open

It’s been a rough year for the Mets. Starting pitchers have been dropping all season long, with Johan Santana and Shaun Marcum unlikely to return, Jeremy Hefner out for all of 2014, and Matt Harvey due to be ready for Opening Day, either in 2014 or 2015. David Wright missed two months, Ike Davis and Ruben Tejada went down just when they were trying to make a case to come back in 2014 as more than AAA org filler, Bobby Parnell and Scott Rice saw their seasons end with surgery, Jeurys Familia and Frank Francisco missed most of the season… All of this does open doors for the prospects though, until they too suffer an injury like Wilmer Flores did and is still trying to recover from while also getting playing time (the opposite of recovery…). If you want a job in baseball in 2014, the Mets are the team for you.

Take starting pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Aaron Harang, for instance. Both earned release from their previous teams and were quickly snatched up by the Mets. Both are aiming for a starting job in 2014, for another team. I’m not sure Mets fans could take much more of either of them, but I guess you need someone to pitch those innings with Montero, deGrom, and now Wheeler shut down. Lost amid the rotation shakeup is the outstanding job Dillon Gee has been doing; he should be getting a nice little contract in the offseason to keep him under team control at a reasonable price for the next few years. The bullpen has its share of 2014 candidates as well, with Vic Black and Sean Henn making their Mets debuts, Carlos Torres splitting time between starting and relief, and Jeurys Familia, Pedro Feliciano, and Tim Byrdak back after recovering from injuries. Frank Francisco is almost certainly not coming back next year, but fill-in closer LaTroy Hawkins wants to come back and the Mets want him back, so hopefully the Mets don’t go and screw this up like everyone expects them to.

The outfield is nothing but 2014 auditions with the departure of Marlon Byrd, but more playing time for Juan Lagares and recent call-up Matt den Dekker can’t be a bad thing. As for Eric Young Jr., well, there’s always a backup role to shoot for. Around the infield, Lucas Duda is at first trying to prove that he’s a first baseman, which is better than when he was an outfielder trying to prove that he’s a first baseman. Juan Centeno beat out Francisco Pena for the third catcher spot and, after Ruben Tejada’s freak injury, Wilfredo Tovar made his MLB debut after spending the season in AA. Barring another freak injury, that should be it for the 2013 Mets, leaving them with 28 new faces. That’s tied with 2006 for the 5th most new Mets in the club’s history, behind only 1962 (45), 1967 (35), and 2002 and 2004 (29). Interestingly, those 2002 and 2004 newcomers include one current Met in each year (Pedro Feliciano from 2002 and David Wright from 2004), while no current Mets debuted in 2006. Daniel Murphy in 2008 is the next oldest debut on the active roster behind Feliciano and Wright (next is Niese, then nothing until 2010). With such a young team, just about everything should be up for grabs next year.

John Buck Marlon Byrd Collin Cowgill Brandon Lyon
1 April 2013 1 April 2013 1 April 2013 1 April 2013
Scott Atchison Scott Rice* Greg Burke LaTroy Hawkins
1 April 2013 1 April 2013 3 April 2013 3 April 2013
Aaron Laffey Anthony Recker Juan Lagares* Shaun Marcum
7 April 2013 7 April 2013 23 April 2013 27 April 2013
Andrew Brown Rick Ankiel David Aardsma Carlos Torres
3 May 2013 13 May 2013 8 June 2013 16 June 2013
Zack Wheeler* Eric Young Jr. Gonzalez Germen* Wilmer Flores*
18 June 2013 19 June 2013 12 July 2013 6 August 2013
Travis d’Arnaud* Daisuke Matsuzaka Matt den Dekker* Vic Black
17 August 2013 23 August 2013 29 August 2013 2 September 2013
Sean Henn Aaron Harang Juan Centeno* Wilfredo Tovar*
9 September 2013 12 September 2013 18 September 2013 22 September 2013

*MLB Debut
Read more »

Marlon Byrd Has One 2013 Baseball Card

Posted by on 7 September 2013 2 comments

A breakout season on the field but not in cardboard

Lost among the disappointments and the disasters that make up the Mets’ 2013 season is Marlon Byrd’s breakout season after being traded, released, and suspended for a banned substance in 2012. In 117 games with the Mets, Byrd hit .285 with 21 home runs, providing a much needed power boost alongside a surprising (in April at least) John Buck. He did all this after signing a minor league deal for a mere $700,000, barely more than the league minimum with no guarantee of major league playing time. Byrd made the team out of spring training and the rest is history. A late August trade to the Pirates with Buck brought back two promising prospects, so Byrd’s impact could be felt for years to come. After all of that, let’s take a look at all of Byrd’s cards from the first 8 months of the year:

No, the others aren’t underneath it, that’s the only one. No base cards, parallels, regular inserts, autographs, or anything else. Just one card in the online-only Topps Mini with a piece of Cubs jersey. Now, he didn’t sign with the Mets until after 2013 Topps Series 1 was released, so you can’t fault Topps for skipping him in that and some of the other early releases. He wasn’t a lock to appear in the majors until late March, so production lead times would make Topps Series 2, released in June, his first chance at a Mets card. It was mostly prospect-oriented products from that until Topps Mini came out, so at least they got to him on the second real opportunity. And then skipped over him in Allen & Ginter’s and Tier One. Maybe we’ll see more of him during the release blitz with Topps Chrome, Bowman Chrome, Topps Finest, Topps Update, and Topps Triple Threads launching on consecutive weeks from late September to the end of October.

After seeing Byrd’s 2013 checklist to date, you wouldn’t expect much from the rest of the Mets’ newcomers. Shaun Marcum signed with the Mets on January 30 and started the season on the DL; some doubted that he would even appear in a game in 2013. Marcum would have to settle for numerous cards in Heritage and Gypsy Queen in a Brewers uniform before his first start with the Mets on April 27, then his first Mets card in Bowman two weeks later. Huh? His Bowman cards were followed up by a redemption autograph in Topps Series 2, a season-ending injury after his final start on July 6, then more cards in Allen & Ginter’s and Tier One in August. Um, he appeared in 14 games over 10 weeks and is now practically a hobby mainstay for some reason. What gives?

Topps, with Photoshop, in Series 2…

John Buck was one of the few newcomers practically guaranteed to make the team straight out of spring training. As salary ballast in the Dickey trade, Buck was the only veteran catcher left in the Mets’ system. With only 6 weeks between the trade and the release of Topps Series 1, there just wasn’t enough time to get him in that product. Instead, his Mets debut had to wait until Topps Series 2 in the base set with countless parallels. That was it for Buck other than the expected base and parallel cards in Topps Mini. Collin Cowgill was about as likely as Byrd to make the team out of spring training, so it wasn’t a surprise that he wasn’t in any of the early products. His production was all downhill after his Opening Day grand slam, so there was no real reason to put him in any of the later products. Cowgill made his Mets debut with a random autograph card in Topps Series 2, released the day after his final game with the Mets. You’d have to be pretty insignificant to get worse treatment than that.

Or apparently one of the most productive players on the team. Why no love for Marlon Byrd? As I see it, there are two possibilities. First, the culprit could be the Topps release schedule, which is so heavily front-loaded that a player who debuts in April usually has to wait until October for their first card (unless they are Yasiel Puig, in which case they will be in every product for the rest of eternity within a month). With Series 1 launching before spring training starts and Series 2 usually scheduled for well before the All-Star break, there is little time to reflect current-season players in a year’s product. This makes no sense. Pushing the release dates back a month or two would allow Series 1 to reflect offseson deals and Series 2 to incorporate early-season call-ups. Instead, we get Jason Bay, Jon Rauch, and Scott Hairston shown as Mets in 2013 with Jeurys Familia and Collin McHugh as the only Mets “rookies” in the base product.

I couldn’t end this without a conspiracy theory, but this isn’t one that originated with me. It has already been speculated that Topps cuts back on the cards of players who have received PED suspensions. There isn’t really enough data to work with to come to any conclusions (that should change soon), but the lack of Byrd cards given the season he’s had (even considering lead time issues) is suspicious. Maybe we’ll be flooded with Byrd in October as Byrd’s season continues with the Pirates and the suspension can be ruled out as a factor. But if not, shunning by Topps could be yet another consequence of PED use.

My Take on the 2013 Mets

Posted by on 10 March 2013 Comments Off on My Take on the 2013 Mets

Wait, someone wants to know what I think?

One of the perks of having a baseball blog is getting bloggers from other teams asking for your thoughts on your team.  Trust me, it’s a lot more exciting than it sounds.  While this blog isn’t getting much of any attention, I (along with probably every Mets blogger out there) did get a request from Daniel Shoptaw at C70 At The Bat for some thoughts on the Mets going into the 2013 season.  I am in no way qualified to provide expert analysis on the subject, but I have never let that stop me before, so why start now?

You can read the answers from six other Mets bloggers at Playing Pepper 2013: New York Mets.

1. How would you grade the offseason?

Based on expectations and the meager offerings on the market, a B- sounds fair, if a bit on the high side.  It’s tempting to grade them lower for not making any flashy moves, but it’s not like the flashy moves they’ve made in the past have worked out all that well.  They kept Wright, grabbed one of the top catching prospects in baseball, and picked up plenty of cheap options for the outfield and the bullpen.  Losing R.A. Dickey is tough, but the package the Blue Jays were offering was too good to pass up.  Not only did the Mets hang on to all of their hot young pitchers, but they picked up another one to add to the crowded single A ranks.  Most importantly, they didn’t throw big contracts at bit parts, going with plenty of non-roster invites (NRIs) over multi-year deals.  It’s not ideal, but it leaves the team in a good position to add pieces when better options become available.  It’s worth noting that this is the first offseason in which Sandy Alderson has not signed a reliever to a multi-year deal.  This is a huge improvement considering that the last two were D.J. Carrasco and Frank Francisco.  Travis d’Arnaud looks to be the catcher of the future while John Buck provides a legitimate veteran presence behind the plate.  The outfield still looks terrible, but did you see the amount of money that was getting thrown around for even moderately decent outfielders?  Now is not the time to be signing the next Jason Bay, the last one is still on the books.

What really matters though is how these guys look in cards.  Shaun Marcum has some nice Brewers jersey swatches, John Buck is a big win in terms of game-used memorabilia with pieces of jerseys from the Royals, the Astros, the 2002 Futures Game, and the 2010 All-Star Game on top of bat, glove, chest protector, and shin guard swatches, and d’Arnaud is a bit disappointing with only some red jersey swatches so far, but most of the NRIs aren’t any better.

The exception is Marlon Byrd, who has an astounding amount of game-used memorabilia to his name from his time with the Cubs and the Phillies.  I really hope he makes the team just so I justify having what I’ve already bought on speculation.

2. Will Johan Santana be back to his old form this season?

It doesn’t really matter.  The Mets aren’t expected to contend this year and this is the last year of his contract, plus he already gave us a no-hitter last year.  It’s been a good but not great run from Santana thus far, so it would be nice to see him finish strong.  Best case scenario, he comes back in top form and gets dealt in July for an outfield prospect, with the Mets eating most of his remaining salary and Zack Wheeler taking his spot in the rotation.  Worst case scenario, he has a setback early in the season and Jenrry Mejia/Collin McHugh/Jeremy Hefner fills in for him until Wheeler is ready.  Most likely, he’ll be good for 100 or so innings as long as he stays away from Reed Johnson.

3. What did it mean to you that the team signed David Wright to an extension?

More than it should.  This team has a terrible history when it comes to keeping star talent.  Even the Astros have had decent luck holding on to their stars for the duration.  You have to remember that the Mets lost The Franchise not once but twice and just last year let Jose Reyes (briefly) go to the Marlins without so much as making him an offer.  The only Mets star to spend an entire career with the team is Ed Kranepool; Wright is second on the list by games played, with current Mets Daniel Murphy and Ike Davis also in the top ten.  I love Kranepool, but that is just sad.  With almost no payroll committed past this season, there was simply no excuse for not locking Wright up for the rest of his quality years.

4. What rookie will make the biggest impact in 2013?

There are really only two options here, Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud.  d’Arnaud has the potential to be a star at a position that has been a problem area for the Mets since Mike Piazza’s departure, while Wheeler has the potential to be the ace in a rotation with some very underrated young pitchers.  The need is greater for d’Arnaud, but I see Wheeler having more impact on a team that is likely to be in pretty bad shape late in the season.

5. What will be the final record of the team and where will they finish in the division?

76-86, 4th in the NL East ahead of the Marlins.  3rd would be nice, but the Phillies don’t have enough experience with late-season collapses to out-collapse the Mets.  Last year they got it completely backwards, almost finishing with a winning record.  They’ve made some great moves this offseason to improve their ability to disappoint, but they’re still at least two or three years away from contending for last place.

Seriously though, the real test for this team isn’t going to be about their record or where they place in the division, it will be whether they can keep from dropping off like a rock after the All-Star game.  They were still in contention last year at the break, then they forgot how to win games and were a lost cause by the trade deadline.  This has been the trend for several years now and needs to stop before the Mets can ever be considered a contender, regardless of how many Wild Card teams are added.

6. What one thing from your team are you most looking forward to watching?

In abstract terms, the unexpected.  Last season brought us a no-hitter from Johan Santana and a 20-win season and Cy Young award from R.A. Dickey, not to mention the debut of Matt Harvey and David Wright getting back to being David Wright.  Even with so much going wrong, there were plenty of bright spots.  If you were at Citi Field for the final home game of the season when R.A. Dickey struck out 13 on the way to his 20th win, you wouldn’t have thought that this was a team wrapping up another lost season.

In more specific terms, I’m really looking forward to seeing a (hopefully) full healthy season from Ike Davis.  Looking at his final line from last year (.227/.308/.462, 32 HR), you don’t get a full appreciation for just how terrible he was from the start of the season until I posted this in June (.167/.248/.285, 5 HR in 206 PA).  His performance from that point on (.261/.341/.562, 27 HR in 378 PA) was enough to bring him up to mediocre on the year, but a full season at that level would be a real treat.  A hot start to the 2013 season could give David Wright some company at the All-Star Game at Citi Field this year.

And then there are the unanswered questions.  Can Jordany Valdespin make it as a big leaguer?  Is there a position for Wilmer Flores?  Will Jeurys Familia live up to his high expectations?  And will we ever settle on a pronunciation of “Jeurys?”  Who will settle into the closer role?  How quickly will the hot arms at single A make it up through the system?  Will playing in Las Vegas (AAA) cause any problems?  Will a major league outfield appear in Citi Field by the end of the season?  There’s a lot to look forward to, even if this season turns out like the last few.  It’s baseball, isn’t that enough?